Between 5 and 17 October 2026, India and Canada compressed months of commercial diplomacy into two weeks: a fifth round of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations in Ottawa, followed by a Team Canada Trade Mission of nearly 300 business delegates to Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru, which Ottawa describes as its largest trade delegation to India in more than 30 years. Both governments are targeting conclusion of CEPA by the end of 2026, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected to visit Canada around December, and have set an ambition to more than double two-way trade from C$30.4 billion in 2025 to C$70 billion by 2030. Building on the C$2.6 billion Cameco uranium supply contract signed in March, the relationship is moving from reset to deal flow. T&A Consulting helps Canadian provincial agencies, exporters and investors, and the Indian states courting them, build market entry and investment attraction strategies that convert CEPA access into contracts, partnerships and inward investment.
Introduction: From Rupture to Reset in Twelve Months
India and Canada have been talking about a trade agreement since 2010. Negotiations were relaunched in March 2022 around an Early Progress Trade Agreement covering goods, services, investment, rules of origin, technical barriers and dispute settlement, but Canada suspended talks in 2023 after nine rounds, when diplomatic relations collapsed. The two governments agreed to restart formal negotiations in November 2025, after Prime Minister Mark Carney invited Prime Minister Modi to the G7 summit in Kananaskis.
The turning point came with Carney’s visit to India from 27 February to 2 March 2026, the first by a Canadian prime minister since the rupture. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu signed the CEPA Terms of Reference on 2 March. The visit produced a strategic energy partnership spanning LNG, LPG, uranium, solar and hydrogen; a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals; 10 commercial agreements worth more than C$5.5 billion; and a Canada-India strategy on talent and innovation that included 13 new partnerships between Canadian and Indian universities.
The baseline is modest relative to the potential. India’s goods trade with Canada stood at $8.66 billion in FY 2024-25, with Indian exports of $4.22 billion. On Canada’s numbers, its merchandise exports to India were $3.9 billion in 2025 against imports of $9.7 billion. Goyal has described the next 90 days as a “defining period” for the relationship. For agencies and companies on both sides, the window to shape positioning before the deal is signed is closing fast.
Reading the Negotiating Calendar
The pace of engagement since September indicates that both sides are negotiating to a fixed political deadline rather than an open-ended process.
- Fourth round, September 2026. The fourth round concluded on 18 September, alongside Sidhu’s 18-19 September visit to Mumbai, where both ministers agreed to accelerate the pace of talks.
- Fifth round, 5-9 October, Ottawa. Chief negotiators met for five days in Ottawa. Sidhu and Goyal had already reviewed progress on the sidelines of the G20 Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Milwaukee on 1 October, and met again in New Delhi during the trade mission.
- Team Canada Trade Mission, 12-17 October. Nearly 300 delegates are covering aerospace, clean technologies and the energy transition, ICT, life sciences and agri-food. Sidhu has highlighted India’s need for more than 2,000 aircraft in the coming years as a priority opportunity for Canada’s aerospace sector.
- December target. Officials are working towards conclusion by the end of 2026, with the G20 summit in Miami on 14-15 December and an expected Modi visit to Canada as natural milestones.
Two features of India’s recent agreements suggest what a final CEPA may look like. First, India now pairs market access with investment commitments: the India-EFTA TEPA carries a $100 billion target and the India-New Zealand FTA, which enters into force on 20 October, carries $20 billion. Canada, home to some of the world’s largest pension investors, is a natural candidate for a similar chapter. Second, India has protected agricultural sensitivities in every recent deal, from dairy in the New Zealand agreement to a range of staples elsewhere. Canadian agri-food exporters should therefore expect managed rather than unrestricted access in sensitive lines, while services, energy, critical minerals and technology offer the clearest early gains.
Where the Commercial Opportunity Sits
The sectors chosen for the trade mission map closely onto India’s own industrial and energy priorities, which is what gives this reset its commercial weight.
- Nuclear fuel and energy. Saskatoon-based Cameco will supply nearly 22 million pounds of uranium ore concentrate to India’s Department of Atomic Energy from 2027 to 2035 under a C$2.6 billion ($1.9 billion) contract. India’s target of 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047, and the SHANTI legislation opening the sector to wider participation, create follow-on demand for fuel services, components and engineering expertise. Both governments have also pledged intensified engagement towards Canada’s first long-term LPG arrangement with India.
- Critical minerals. The March memorandum of understanding positions Canada’s resource base as a source of supply diversification for India’s battery, electronics and clean energy manufacturing, where supply chains are heavily concentrated in a few countries.
- Pension and institutional capital. In June 2026, CPP Investments committed up to C$1 billion to a partnership with CtrlS Datacenters, including an 8.2% stake in the company and a 48% share of a joint venture to develop data centres across India. CDPQ has operated an office in New Delhi since 2016. Canadian institutional capital is already one of the largest foreign sources of long-term investment in Indian infrastructure, and a CEPA investment chapter would add treaty-level predictability.
- Aerospace and advanced manufacturing. With Indian carriers expanding fleets rapidly, Canadian firms in aircraft systems, simulation, training and maintenance, repair and overhaul have a clear entry point, particularly through partnerships with Indian manufacturers seeking to build domestic capability.
- Education and talent. The 13 university partnerships announced in March signal a shift from student recruitment towards institutional collaboration in research, joint programmes and innovation, an important rebalancing after several years of volatility in Indian student flows to Canada.
The Reverse Flow: Indian Investment into Canada
CEPA is not only a market access story for Canadian exporters. Indian companies have become significant outward investors, with RBI data showing outward FDI of $20.5 billion in April-October of FY 2025-26. Indian IT services, pharmaceuticals, auto components and specialty chemicals firms are actively seeking North American platforms, and tariff uncertainty in the United States has increased the attraction of alternatives that offer stable access to North American customers and talent.
For Canadian provincial and municipal economic development agencies, this creates a dual mandate. The same diplomatic momentum that opens India to Canadian exporters makes Canada a more credible destination for Indian expansion. Agencies that combine export promotion with targeted investment attraction, presenting clear propositions on talent, incentives, R&D tax credits and market access, will be best placed to capture Indian projects once a CEPA is in force.
Implications for EDAs, Investors and Companies
- Canadian provincial EDAs and trade agencies. Use the trade mission follow-up period to convert introductions into structured pipelines. Agencies in Saskatchewan, Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec should develop India-specific propositions in their comparative strengths, from uranium and potash to aerospace and AI, and engage the Indian states whose industrial policies align.
- Canadian exporters. Map current Indian tariffs and non-tariff barriers on your products now, so you can respond quickly once the final schedules are published. Where agricultural lines are likely to remain sensitive, consider value-added, processed or ingredient formats that may face fewer restrictions.
- Indian state IPAs. Canadian pension funds and institutional investors are actively expanding their India exposure. States with bankable pipelines in data centres, renewable energy, transmission, logistics and urban infrastructure should brief these investors directly rather than waiting for intermediaries.
- Indian companies seeking North American expansion. Evaluate Canadian provinces as a base for serving North American customers, accessing skilled talent and benefiting from innovation incentives, particularly in IT services, life sciences and advanced manufacturing.
- Universities on both sides. Build on the March partnerships with joint research, dual degrees and industry-linked programmes in AI, clean energy and life sciences, which are less exposed to shifts in student visa policy than recruitment alone.
How T&A Consulting Supports India-Canada Trade and Investment
T&A Consulting works with economic development agencies and governments across North America, Europe, Asia and Africa on India strategy, and brings that experience to the Canada-India corridor:
- CEPA readiness assessments. We analyse current Indian tariff and regulatory barriers for priority products and services, and model how likely CEPA outcomes would change competitiveness, so clients can act on day one.
- India market entry for Canadian companies. We advise on entity structure, FEMA and RBI compliance, partner selection and state-level incentives for firms in energy, aerospace, clean technology, ICT and life sciences.
- Investment attraction for Canadian agencies. We identify and engage Indian companies with North American expansion plans, and run lead generation and outreach programmes for provincial and municipal EDAs.
- Investor engagement for Indian states. We help Indian state IPAs structure project pipelines and engage Canadian pension and institutional investors.
- Delegation programmes and follow-up. We design trade mission itineraries, B2B matchmaking and post-mission follow-up that convert introductions into signed agreements.
The India-Canada CEPA will be signed in a matter of months, but its value will be decided by the preparation that happens now. Agencies and companies that build their propositions, partners and pipelines before the text is final will set the terms of a corridor that both governments intend to more than double by 2030.
Contact us at: pnijhawan@taglobalgroup.com to prepare your India-Canada trade or investment strategy ahead of the CEPA conclusion.
Sources & references:
Trade Commissioner Service: Team Canada Trade Mission to India,
All India Radio: India, Canada intensify CEPA talks,
Bloomberg: Cameco signs $1.9 billion uranium deal with India,
The Canadian Press: Prime Minister Carney visits India,
The Canadian Press: CPP Investments commits $1B to data centre partnership in India,
ANI: India, Canada to fast-track CEPA talks